City and Regional Planning / Civil Engineering
5700
Urban Transportation Demand Forecasting
Semester Conversion
CRP/CE 5700 is the semester version of CRP/CE 775. As regards 775 vs 5700:
The topics to be covered are the same, but we will be covering them in more
depth and perhaps at a more leisurely pace.
General Note On This Course
This is a joint course between City and Regional Planning and Civil Engineering,
providing an introduction to the modeling techniques used to forecast traffic
flows in urban and regional areas. It is a quantitative course, meaning that
students will be doing lots of calculations with the models. In addition,
we suppose that you have had at least a basic course in statistics, and
understand what a derivative is. If you doubt your preparation for the
course, the best thing to do is to attend the first few meetings, to get an
idea of what you will be facing; and to ask the instructor(s). Remember,
you have a couple of weeks during which you can drop courses without
penalty.
Basics
 Meeting: Tuesday, Thursday 2:20–3:40 in 317 Bolz Hall
 2014 Overview of course by Prof Mishalani — PDF format. This lists
the two instructors, their office locations, phone numbers and email
addresses.
 Syllabi:
 2014 First half of the course : PDF format.
 2014 Second half of the course: PDF , HTML formats
 2014 Final Examination: the 5700 final is scheduled for Monday, December
15 from 2:00–3:45 pm in our regular classroom. It will cover all and only
the material from the second half of the course. Bring a calculator; no
internet devices are permitted.
 Link to second website
Announcements
 We will not meet on the Tuesday of Thanksgiving week (week of
November 24), and of course not on the Thursday (Thanksgiving day)
either. You may make your travel plans accordingly.
First Half Materials
 Problem set 0 : this is to help you decide whether you have the
necessary background for the course. It is not part of the formal course
work, and will not be graded. Available here from the restricted site.
 Instructions for presenting solutions to the problem sets in period 1.
Available in PDF from the restricted site.
 Problem set 2 and Instructions
Second Half Materials
Older Second Half Lecture Notes
These are materials provided in earlier editions of the course. They are
provided here in the hope that they may be useful; but students in 5700
should not assume that they are relevant to current versions of the course.
They are all PDF files, available in two formats: the handout format is
4slidestoapage (the format distributed in class); the projection format is
1slidetoapage.
Here is a tableofcontents for the lecture notes (HTML). It may help provide
an overview of what the notes cover.
Older Second Half Materials
These are also materials provided in earlier editions of the course and
may not be relevant to current versions. Note on the old exams: starting in 2014
I changed some notation for trip distribution. Previous work (and the exams)
used a twostar notation (eg O^{**}) for both the final predicted trip distribution
matrix and the future predicted data used to derive the final matrix. Though I
think it was clear what was going on, I’ve changed the notation to differentiate
between the two. So bear in mind that the 2013 and earlier exams reflect the old
notation.
 2014 Period2 Final examination: exam and answers
 2013 Period2 Final examination: exam and answers
 2012 Period2 Final examination : exam and answers
 2011 Period2 Final Examination with answers: (PDF)
 2010 Period2 Final Examination with answers: ( PDF )
 Gravity model: example calibration (material extracted from The
Gravity Model: Derivation and Calibration).
 Derivation of Logit Probabilities ( PDF) . This optional note was not
distributed in class.
 McFaddenTalvitie results ( PDF )
 Discrete Choice Models with R ( PDF ). Expanded version of the
“Using R” slide presentation, above.
 Getting Started with Limdep for Windows (PDF ). This is a
beginner’s guide to the Limdep for Windows statistical package,
focussing on estimation of the discrete choice model. It contains a series
of exercises you can use to familiarize yourself with the program: to do
the exercises you will need to download the file limdepw.zip . When
you’ve retrieved the file, unzip it to some directory on your hard disk.
 The clogit data set, which is referred to in both computer guides:
plain text ; plain text, with header ; commaseparated values ;
Excel 2003 spreadsheet
